![]() But all the shifts are emerging to some extent across income groups. Low-income consumer segments trend more toward downtrading, while high-income segments trend more toward online and lifestyle-driven products. These shifts emerged as consistent patterns across most European markets. The essence of these trends is shaped by three key shifts: online becomes core, value is king again (downtrading), and consumer lifestyle agendas drive demand through a focus on health, sustainability, and convenience food. The research identified ten trends we expect to shape the grocery retail market in the coming years (Exhibit 1). In January 2021, EuroCommerce and McKinsey conducted grocery retail surveys across Europe (see sidebar, “About the research”). Grocery retailers thus will need to strive for further efficiency and find new margin pools to grow profitably. However, both the growth of online and the trend toward value are likely to put further pressure on grocers’ margins, especially given that the overall market may shrink once restaurants return. This article was a collaborative effort by Claus Gerckens, Franck Laizet, Daniel Läubli, and Eugen Zgraggen of McKinsey’s Retail Practice and Jean-Albert Nyssens of EuroCommerce.Ĭonsumer shifts around online, value, and lifestyle agendas are creating an attractive opportunity for grocery retailers to capture market shares over the next two to three years.
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